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Are we on for another bull run?

The FTSE 100 is rallying. Patrick Collinson asks if this is the start of a bull run, or is a bear market lurking with intent

As recently as 10 July, the FTSE 100 share index was languishing at 4,127, trading volumes were at record lows and there was a widespread feeling that the first green shoots had withered. Since then it has topped 4,600 and sales of investment funds to small investors have taken off. The Investment Management Association says net retail sales in June rocketed to £2.5bn, from £128m in the same month last year, while investment Isa sales hit a six-year high.

An investor confidence report published today by Lloyds TSB says “the tide is turning” and that inflows from its private banking clients into shares have risen for the first time since 2007.So is this the start of a bull run, or is it no more than a “sucker’s rally”?

The bull case

Ted Scott, equity strategy chief at F&C which runs around £100bn in assets, believes the UK’s economic recovery will be slow and fragile. But the price-earnings ratio of shares – a key measure of value – is 13.5, which assumes a 20% recovery in profits in 2010. That, he says, looks cheap against a long-term trading range of between 12.5 and 18. “If this is the first leg of a bull market, it will become apparent that we are past the worst. By the time it is obvious, the market will be a lot higher,” he says.

Jeremy Smith, manager of Neptune UK Equity, is also confident about a recovery in share prices rather than the UK economy. He is convinced the next great investment story is the Chinese consumer, and that the beneficiaries will not only be global stocks such as oil and mining conglomerates – which loom large in the FTSE 100 – but also consumer brand companies such as British American Tobacco and Unilever.

At Fidelity, where Tom Ewing runs the £400m UK Growth trust, there is more gloom about Britain’s economic prospects. But a third of the profits of FTSE 100 companies are made overseas and Ewing has high hopes for Chinese demand for products made by UK-listed companies, such as drinks group Diageo. He’s just back from a trip to Shenyang, a city north-east of Beijing, where two private housing developments are going up with a total floor space greater than London’s Canary Wharf.

“It can seem bleak here, but there is a lot to be optimistic about. The news from China is unambiguously positive. And don’t think you have ‘missed it’ because the FTSE has risen; it has only retraced part of the 40% fall it suffered last year,” he says.

The bear case

Our favourite doomster, David Kauders of Kauders Portfolio Management, was a lone voice warning the colossal build-up of consumer and bank debt would bring disaster. Today he’s no less pessimistic.

“It’s perfectly normal for stockmarkets to rally for long periods in a bear market,” he says. “The rally rarely retraces all the lost ground, while the downturns are steep and sudden.” He says there will be no real recovery while households and companies are repaying more debt than they are borrowing. “The idea that there is a new bull market is fanciful.”

Many big City investors think the recent rally will soon run out of steam. Barclays says equities are close to fair value with “choppier seas” ahead.

Bob Doll, chief investment officer for global equities at BlackRock, which runs $1.4tn (£854bn) in equities, says: “Investors are still cautious, evidenced by the amount of cash on the sidelines. And while second-quarter earnings reports are positive, they are largely the result of aggressive cost-cutting.”

He says markets could be unnerved by worse-than-expected inflation data or a slide in consumer spending once fiscal stimulus programmes dry up.

So where do you put your money?

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Payday Loans Offer Bucks To Fix Urgent Needs

Every one faces financial crisis suddenly at anytime. We also know that it is excruciatingly painful to deal with. Even then, what if it excceds all imagination? What if the next payday is in another two weeks? Not to mention if you have bad credit?

Surely you would presume that there is no way that you can raise the money at such a short notice and you would likewly assume that lenders will not even think about lending you the money you need because of your bad credit score. Nevertheless, payday loans is the way to go to get the money that you badly require despite your poor credit record.

Almost any one with an income source can qualify for a payday loan. However, in order to get approved for this type of loan, you first need some sort of income or you need to have a job. Besides, creditors or lenders will rely on your income or your salary in order for ensuring repayment. If you are unemployed, then how will the lenders get their money back with interest?

Therefore you should be employed. The second step is actually applying for the loan. After that, all you need to do is wait, get the approval and see the money in your bank account.

You also need to keep in mind that there are also lenders that offer different repayment schemes for this type of loan. Some loans can be paid in as little as one payday, while there are some that can go as much as five paydays or even more. Make sure that you choose a repayment plan for this type of loan that you are most comfortable with.

It is true that early repayment would mean reduction in salary to that extent. At the same time, longer repayment time would mean higher interest burden. So, choose the repayment plan that you are most comfortable with. Which are, one that will not squeeze your salary dry, and one that will not leave you paying more money than you borrowed.

Naturally it is always good to have a good credit score, but,it is not a must in this type of loan. Since lenders secure themselves with a post dated cheque with pay day in mind, they will be sure that they will get their money back with interest. So, for them, the risk is low.

Also, because the payment for the loan will be automatically deducted from your salary, you don’t need to worry about forgetting about it. So, the risk is also very low for you. The only thing that you should be worried about is that your payday will be delayed because of unavoidable circumstances.

These are the things that you have to remember. With these in mind, you can expect to get the funds required by you at a short call. Processing of payday loans, is much more simple, quicker, and a lot easier than many other types of loans. Even if you have bad credit, you can still obtain much needed funds with this type of loan.

Start your search for personal loans for bad credit so as to payday loan bad credit.

Grab timely points of view about car finance calculator – this is your personal knowledge pack.

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